Elections in Fragile Situations

How and when should elections be held, particularly in countries with fragile situations? What should be the role of donors and the international community in supporting democracy? There is no general recipe for every situation, according to André Gerrits, Professor of Political Science. What matters is to take the local context into account and to act accordingly.

As protesters in the Arab world continue to demand human rights, political freedom and democracy, the donor community, including the European Union, is strengthening its support for the wave of democratisation that is sweeping the Southern Mediterranean and the Middle East.

But tough questions are also being raised, such as: how and when should elections be held in transition countries? What should the role of donors and the international community be in supporting democratic governance? What lessons can be learned for the developing world, and new and emerging democracies?

"The point about the elections is that there are no clear answers to every situation, so it very much concerns the actual context," explained André Gerrits, Professor of Political Science at Leiden University, on the sidelines of a panel discussion on "Democracy in Practice" organised by the European Commission during the 2011 European Development Days.

According to panellists, countries that have established election schedules must hold their elections according to schedule. Postponing or cancelling elections in these situations might breed disillusionment, frustration and violence.

On the contrary, the timing of first genuine elections in newly transitioning countries is a more complicated question. It requires balancing several factors and the creation of conditions conducive to elections that the voters will accept.

The recent successful election in Tunisia was presented by panellists as a reasonably best-case example of how and when to hold elections in transition countries. Tunisia chose to have its first elections run by an independent election commission. There was great pressure to hold the elections as quickly as possible. However, after consulting with political parties, civil society and international experts, the commission delayed the election for some months to ensure that the public was adequately informed about the election, that political parties had time to organise and technical issues had been resolved. The elections were held less than nine months after the fall of the old regime.

However, panellists agreed that the situation in Tunisia was somewhat unique and conditions in other transition countries, such as Egypt and Libya, are different and will require different approaches.

"Particularly in really fragile states, holding elections might have a counterproductive effect because it might lead to more conflict instead or less," explained André Gerrits. "My advice would be to wait and postpone elections until anyway there are stable State structures.”

But panellists warned that while it is clear that elections are necessary, they are not sufficient to guarantee genuine democracy. If not credible, election results are often disputed and can foment violence as the 2007 Kenyan elections demonstrated.

"Elections need to be free and fair but given the difficult situation in some countries, then credibility might be our maximum approach,” Mr Gerrits said. "As long as the various stakeholders in elections accept the outcome as legitimate, that is, I guess, the most important issue."

In Kenya, the next presidential elections will come under intense scrutiny because it will be the first under a new constitution, and the first since the 2007 poll that gave rise to fighting in which more than 1,220 people were killed.

For Martha Karua, a candidate for the upcoming Kenyan presidential elections, it is important to invest in the institutions and in the people to engender free, fair and credible elections.

 "I think we are not there yet," she said. "Basically the infrastructure is being built and it is our responsibility to help to strengthen it. Civic education has not been really going on at the level that it should and I think we really have to redouble our efforts to sensitize the people that have the responsibility to ensure that there is peace and functional democracy in our country."

The organisation of elections in transition countries also raises tough questions about the role of donors and the international community in supporting good governance and democracy.

For André Gerrits, the deciding factor again is country context. The extensive external involvement into elections and the democratisation process in Central Europe in the 1990's is, according to him, a best-case example as this involvement was accepted by the local populations.

"If it is not accepted, don't do it because it will have counterproductive effects,” he concluded. "There is only one blueprint: take the local context into account and act accordingly."

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