Agrimonde-Terra: Foresight land use and food security in 2050

Published on June 2016 in the framework of a broader work launched in 2012 by CIRAD and INRA, the summary report “Agrimonde-Terra: Foresight land use and food security in 2050” provides the main findings of a global analysis on the linkage between land use exploitation, food security and climate change and its consequences.

According to the experts, “over the past 50 years, the world’s arable and permanent crop land area has grown by 12% while the area dedicated to permanent meadows and pastures has grown by 9%. Concerning current land use and the potential for expanding the agricultural land area in the various world regions, this differs widely according to their land endowment. North Africa, the Near and Middle East and China already exceed their cultivable area. India and the European Union are reaching the limit of their cultivable area and larger regions such as Canada/USA, the Former Soviet Union and East, Central and South Africa remain far below their potential cultivable area, part of which is therefore threatened by deforestation".

The expected growth in the world population, which is set to reach 9.7 billion in 2050, and land availability clearly raise the question of the future of land-use patterns and of their interactions with food security. What are the main drivers of land-use changes and how do they interact and influence food and nutrition security? How will the agricultural land area change over the next 40 years, at the world level and in the different regions? What tensions will there be between food and nutrition security and mitigation of climate change in 2050?

This work aims to answer to these questions by identifying 5 Agrimonde-Terra’s scenarios which point out a diversity of pathways of change for agricultural land use and food security in 2050. According to the authors “because the scope of the challenge is complex, with many overlapping and interlinked issues that cut across sectors, territories and actors, changing the course of ongoing trends requires systemic transformation, public policies and consistent actions from a wide range of actors. Each region and each country will have to find its own pathway related to its initial situation, but in coherence with common  responsibilities in facing global challenges.”