The Cost of the Syrian Conflict

As the Syrian conflict enters its sixth year, the losses continue to grow – whether measured in lives, dollars, infrastructure or years of lost schooling.

According to Michael Docherty, Head of Sector for Jordan, Lebanon and Syria in the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations (DG NEAR), Syria has regressed 40 years in development terms since the conflict began.

“It’s a major development and humanitarian crisis,” said Docherty. “Unemployment is endemic. There are enormous problems supplying vital everyday services to the population. The water supply is breaking down, the health services are strained, and only 50% of the school-age population is enrolled in school, compared to about 95% before the crisis.”

The impact goes beyond Syria’s borders. “The crisis is now compromising development gains and exacerbating existing vulnerabilities across the region, especially in Jordan and Lebanon,” said Docherty.

Impact on children

Half the affected population are children. According to a report by World Vision and Frontier Economics, 8.2 million children are affected; around 86,000 children under five are acutely malnourished, and between 11,000 and 19,000 children have been killed since the conflict in Syria began.

For the children who have survived, the conflict has disrupted their lives and limited their future opportunities. A quarter of schools in Syria have been damaged or destroyed, according to the report, and displacement both internally and into neighbouring countries means education is often left behind. Just one in five school-aged Syrian children living in Lebanon is able to attend lessons. Instead, children are out looking for work to help provide for their families.

Another impact of the conflict is that girls are increasingly being married while still in their teens or younger, as parents hope to secure their daughters’ safety in volatile circumstances. Once wed, girls are unlikely to return to the classroom.

“We’ve lost a generation,” said Conny Lenneberg, Regional Leader for the Middle East and Eastern Europe at World Vision International. “When children are out of school for three or four years, it’s very difficult to re-integrate them. There are hundreds of thousands of children out of school for that time.”

World Vision has calculated that 24.5 million school years have been lost so far, with long-lasting consequences for Syrian children and for the country’s future. “We need to think about how to prepare those children to have the skills and basic literacy they need so they can be productive in their own economy,” said Lenneberg.

“We need to plan for the day after, when a peace agreement is reached. Parents need a lot of pyscho-social support and training. So do youth, who have had distressing experiences and interrupted schooling,” said Lenneberg.

“What’s amazed me working with refugees is how passionate they are about return. They all talk about going back and rebuilding their country. Let them lead the process.”

International support

At the ‘Supporting Syria and the Region’ conference in London in February, world leaders and international organisations pledged over $11 billion to support Syrians. $5.8 billion is intended for this year, and a further $5.4 billion has been pledged for 2017-20.

The EU and its member states are important contributors, having given €5.03 billion in 2015.

“A unique aspect of the crisis from an EU point of view is that it takes place in a three-cornered part of the world for us, where three financing instruments touch,” said Docherty. “We have the Decentralized Cooperation Instrument (DCI) for Iraq, the Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA) for Turkey, and the European Neighbourhood Instrument (ENI) for Syria, Lebanon and Jordan.”

“Then we have various other instruments for contributing to stability and peace: Foreign Policy Instruments  (FPIs), the European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights (EIDHR), funds from DEVCO [the Directorate-General for International Cooperation and Development] which are managed by Delegations in situ, and the biggest single element, humanitarian assistance managed by ECHO [the Directorate-General for Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection].” 

Image credit: Michael Docherty

In addition, an EU Regional Trust Fund for Syrian Refugees (“Madad Fund”), worth €645 million, aims to integrate the EU’s response by merging various EU financial instruments with member states’ contributions. The Madad fund primarily addresses longer-term needs of refugees in Syria’s neighbouring countries, as well as those of host populations and administrations.

“For a long time we’ve been dealing with the effects of crisis without seeing any end, just the effect it’s having on people’s lives, the destruction of the country, the destabilizing of neighbouring countries, and the longer it goes on, the more frustrating it is,” said Docherty. “We hope there’s light at the end of the tunnel with the ceasefire, and perhaps if it holds, it will give us the space to work on something more constructive than firefighting.”

In addition to immediate relief and aid, support for education and vocational training will be key to rehabilitating Syrians and their country. “We need to invest in the future of Syria’s children and the region,” said Conny Lenneberg. “We cannot afford not to respond more fully to the need for humanitarian access and support to all who need it. We need to plan for it now so we can respond well when the opportunity arises.”

Further reading

• EU Regional Trust Fund in Response to the Syrian Crisis
• EU Delegation to Syria
• World Vision – Preventing a Lost Generation

 Teaser image credit: World Vision