The implications of agricultural trade and market developments for food security

Using the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook to 2024, this paper provides projections on the availability of calories at the national level, for the number of persons undernourished, and for the proportion of undernourishment (PoU) that are consistent with the market projections of the Outlook’s baseline. It also considers the impact on undernourishment of four alternative scenarios: faster income growth; stronger growth in agricultural productivity; a combination of a faster income growth with a stronger productivity growth; and more equitable access to available food supplies. The analysis confirms that it is not lack of available food that is the fundamental problem, but rather effective access to that food. Trade plays an increasing role in ensuring national food availability for many countries.