Linking political economy analysis with action in Zambia

The Zambia country political economy analysis will not tell EUD staff living and working in Zambia much, if anything, they didn't already know about the country. That is not its primary purpose (although it has been useful in briefing new staff, and existing staff have found it a helpful synthesis).

The main benefits of the analysis are that it highlights aspects of Zambia’s development story that tend to be neglected by conventional studies, and prompts different ways of thinking about the scope for donors to support positive change. For example:

·It legitimises knowledge that EUD staff have from non-official, informal sources, and brings it into the public domain. In particular the analysis underlines the importance of informal relationships and “rules of the game” in shaping the incentives and behaviour of key Zambian policymakers. This is crucial for framing effective approaches to political and policy dialogue.

·It offers a different perspective and point of reference for making judgements about current development performance.For example the analysis of foundational factors makes one realise that 47 years is a very short time in which undertake the complex task of building a new nation and independent state, particularly in the light of Zambia’s colonial inheritance and turbulent neighbourhood.So while donors rightly express dismay about Zambia’s disappointing performance in relation to rural poverty, inequality, economic diversification and corruption, they also need to recognise the depth of the challenges, and value the progress that has been made.

·The analysis underlines the central importance for development of relationships between political and economic processes. The history of state formation in Zambia was integrally linked to copper mining. The independence struggle brought together political and labour organisations. The post- independence UNIP policies of centralised, inclusive patronage based on state control of mining and industry were designed to help manage ethnic tensions and reinforce political and social stability (of course they also undermined economic growth and public finances). Short term political calculations continue to support monopoly benefits for a small number of dominant, politically influential enterprises, and impede economic competition and diversification.The analysis underlines the importance of understanding state – business relations because they are central to finding solutions to many of the collective action problems that are constraining development.

·The analysis highlights the fact that many current development policies and challenges have their origins in colonial era and post-independence experience, reinforced by current “rules of the game” governing political competition. The historical experience has also contributed to shaping public attitudes (for example there is widespread support for continued government ownership of key economic assets, and opposition to public service redundancies). All this helps explain persistent failures to address policy and institutional constraints to economic and social development.

·The analysis focuses on processes of change , highlighting foundational factors that tend to be very slow to change; rules of the game where there may be more scope to shift incentives over the medium term, reinforced by key socio-economic trends; and short term opportunities arising from current “events” or personalities. This helps in assessing the room for manoeuvre of current policy makers, as well as the scope for aid donors to support both short term opportunities for reform, and more indirect strategies for longer term, more incremental change.

·The analysis provides a basis for dialogue between EUD staff working on political, development, commercial and security issues, highlighting the connections between them, and the importance of the wider global and regional context in shaping political incentives for economic growth and development.

·Finally the analysis emphasises that development is a locally driven, political process with which donors are engaging as external actors. This should prompt them to pay more attention to the impact of all their interventions on local incentives and capacity for change, and to consider not just to what they do, but also to how they do it, and how they are perceived by Zambian partners. The June workshop in Lusaka that reviewed the country political economy analysis concluded that while it might not have suggested a lot of new things to do, it did point to the need to do a lot of things differently.  

Disclaimer: This represents the views of the author, not the European Commission