Predictions of a drier 2015 period in the Caribbean

The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) said at its June 1-2 Regional Climate Outlook forum for the 2015 wet/hurricane season that Caribbean countries should prepare for a drier than normal hurricane season and that the effects of the lower rainfalls will be felt in the dry season of 2016. "For the agricultural sector, that is very, very serious news," Leslie Simpson, natural resources management specialist at Caribbean Agricultural Research & Development Institute told the Caribbean Media Corporation (CMC). He noted that more than 50 per cent of agriculture in the Caribbean depends on rainfall. "Our irrigation is a little better over the last 10 years, but it really is not in a position where we can think of irrigation to replace rainfall. So it is going to affect agriculture, particularly small farmers, who are the ones who cannot afford irrigation at this time," he said. Simpson, who is based in Jamaica, noted the impact of drought in that country, where the economy lost almost US$1 billion last year as a result of an extended dry spell.

Glenroy Brown, a meteorologist at the Jamaica Meteorological Service, who is responsible for climate smart tools and products used in Kingston  said the preliminary information says that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) -- the warming of the Pacific waters near the equator that affects weather condition in the Caribbean and other parts of the world has developed and will strengthen towards the middle of August going into December. "However, going into that dry season, which is generally for us between December and March, we are saying if you are in a dry season which is below normal, then going into a wet season where it is also drier than normal, it will then affect food security, water supply," Brown said, adding "it means that we will not have that water that we preciously need to meet our demand". St Lucian farmer Anthony Herman, who is also board secretary and project coordinator at the Bellevue Farmer's Cooperative, lost 70 per cent of his cashew crop as a result of the on-going drought. He described the situation as: "Frightening in the sense that I don't think that we, as a Government, we as a people have created the resilience that is necessary to combat drought."

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/Worry-over-prediction-of-a-drier-2015-for-Caribbean-_19063181