Zoom: Global action to address the climate change-agriculture-food security nexus

The annual climate conference, known as the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is taking place in Marrakech, Morocco, on 7-18 November 2016. This year’s conference, the 22nd session of the Conference of the Parties (COP22) which is being held simultaneously with the 12th session of the Conference of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP12), also serves as the first meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA1). In December 2015, 195 countries adopted the Paris Agreement on climate change, the world’s first universal, legally binding climate deal. This sets out the Global Climate Action Agenda to put the world on track to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. The Paris Agreement came into force just before COP22 on the 4 November 2016.

At COP22, national governments and other stakeholders are continuing their work on strengthening the global response to climate change. In particular, governments are discussing the details of the Paris Agreement and preparing for the implementation of all its provisions. The provisions cover the reduction of emissions (mitigation), adaptation to climate change, means of implementation and support for developing and most vulnerable countries.  Impressions of the first day of COP22 can be seen in the video below.

The EU strongly supports the Global Climate Action Agenda aimed at catalysing multi-stakeholder action, and it ratified the Paris Agreement at the beginning of October. Consistent with this commitment, the EU and its member states have organised a series of side-events at COP22, hosting more than 100 events at the EU Pavilion. These events, organised by a wide variety of organisations from Europe and the rest of the world, address a range of climate-related issues, including the role of agriculture and food security.

Agriculture and climate change

Agriculture plays a unique and challenging role in climate change because it is a major contributor to global warming through crops, livestock, fisheries, aquaculture and forestry while, at the same time, it is severely affected by the impact of climate change. As stated in the 2016 State of food security and agriculture, published by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), there are complex interactions and inextricable links between climate change and agriculture. Agriculture, forestry and other land use are estimated at contributing 21% of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly caused by deforestation, livestock production and soil and nutrient management. However, this estimation does not include greenhouse gases that are produced in modern food supply chains. According to the SOFA report (2016), ‘if emissions caused by direct and indirect energy use by the agri-food chain were included, the agriculture, forestry and other land use share of total greenhouse emissions would increase by approximately one third.’

Agricultural production is adversely affected by global warming due to rising temperatures, increased temperature variability, changes in levels and frequency of precipitation, a greater frequency of dry spells and droughts, the increasing intensity of extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and the salinization of arable land and freshwater. These effects have huge implications for global food production and consumption system in all countries, with particularly negative effects on countries that rely on small-scale farming. Climate change has direct effects on all aspects of food security. Climate change affects food availability through its adverse impacts on crop yields, fish stocks and animal health and productivity. It limits access to food because severe droughts or floods can sharply reduce incomes and cause asset losses that erode future income earning capacity. In addition, to the extent that food supply is reduced by climate change, food prices increase, obliging small farmers to spend a much higher share of their income on food.  The nutrition status of the poor can also be affected when changes in the utilization of  food occur due, for example, to water scarcity which impacts on water quality and hygiene habits, reductions in caregiving and the nutrient content of staple food crops, and food contamination. Finally, climate variability and a higher frequency and intensity of extreme events will affect the stability of food availability, with increased supply risks and reduced supply predictability (SOFA, 2016).

According to a recent article in ‘The Guardian’ newspaper, the host country of COP22, Morocco, is already feeling the effect of climate change on agriculture. In 2015, partly caused by the regular El Niño weather pattern, Morocco went without rain for more than two months and received 42.7% less rain than normal during its main planting season. The impact on the harvest of wheat, barley and maize has been described as ‘catastrophic’, particularly on dry zone areas. In response to these developments, according to ‘The Guardian’, Morocco aims to make COP22, ‘the African COP.’

Africa and climate change

In an article published in May 2016, Estherine Lisinge-Fotabong, Director for Programme Implementation and Coordination at the NEPAD Agency, argues that capacity of African countries to cope with the effects of climate change is expected to be seriously challenged, and potentially overwhelmed, by the size and pace of change. In response to the Paris Agreement, Lisinge-Fotabong  considers that African countries need to demonstrate commitment by planning and implementing effective adaptation actions and report on their adaptation progress and needs. According to Lisinge-Fotabong, Africa’s vulnerability to climate change is linked to its dependence on the agricultural sector, particularly rainfed agriculture, making it particularly vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns. Indeed, temperature and rainfall changes are expected to have a negative effect on crop production in Africa.  While many of the projected effects of climate change on agriculture are expected to be negative, it is possible that productivity could increase in some areas because climatic conditions may become more favourable.

A recent scientific study from the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture and other organisations, published in ‘Nature’ in March 2016, predicts considerable changes for all major crops in sub-Saharan during the 21^st Century as climates shift and some areas become unsuitable for current agricultural practices. For most crops, however, transformation is limited to small pockets (less than 15% of the current area), and only for beans, maize and banana is transformation more widespread (approx. 30% of the area for maize and banana, 60% for beans). The study conceives of three overlapping adaptation phases: an incremental adaptation phase focused on improvements to crops and management, a preparatory phase that establishes appropriate policies and enabling environments, and a transformational adaptation phase in which farmers substitute crops, explore alternative livelihoods strategies and even relocate to more favourable areas.

Adaptation of African agriculture

Morocco is using the COP22 conference to formally launch its Initiative for the Adaptation of African Agriculture to Climate change (AAA). As food security becomes increasingly challenged by erratic weather patterns, the initiative proposes measures such as improved soil management, water and irrigation management and better weather forecasting and insurance programmes for farmers affected by drought. The Moroccan government considers that the initiative will persuade world leaders to develop a concrete plan to divide up the USD100 billion commitment to adaptation and mitigation projects in developing countries. Morocco’s Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries, Aziz Akannouch, argues:

We have to translate the big ideas written in western offices about responses to climate change into something that actually changes the lives of small farmers. It’s about pragmatic responses – things like irrigation projects, developing oases, improving access to fertilisers and credit.

According to ‘The Guardian’ article, the initiative has received some criticism because it appears to replicate the work already being done by other pan-African agricultural programmes.

The initiative is built around two major pillars: advocacy to secure financing for projects of agricultural adaptation in African countries; and promotion of innovative solutions to respond to Africa’s priorities. Innovative solutions include projects to improve soil management, agricultural-water control, climate-risk management, and financial-capacity building. Good practices are highlighted in a recently published white paper which covers soil management, soil fertility and crop fertilisation, fruit farming, rangeland management, agroforestry; agro-ecological innovations and carbon sequestration; agricultural-water control; and climate-risk management. For each of these axes, the white paper reports on the current state of affairs, lists the solutions promoted and supported by the initiative, and reviews existing initiatives.

A video, published on 6 November 2016 by EuroNews in French describes the AAA initiative.

Climate Finance

To address the ‘double challenge’ (SOFA, 2016: XI) of eradicating hunger and poverty and stabilising the global climate, the international community is increasingly engaging in climate finance which promotes both mitigation and adaptation strategies. This commitment is fixed in the 189 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) documents which are country-level climate action ‘guides’, providing concrete strategies to address and respond to climate change. In a diverse way and with diverse percentage of importance given either to mitigation or to adaptation initiatives, agriculture is considered as a major potential contributor to fight climate change in the INDCs. However, this role implies a ‘transformation’ of the agricultural system which must be based on economic viable and sustainable farming solutions, especially for improving the resilience of small-scale producers.

A recent report by the FAO, The agriculture sectors in the INDCs, has analyzed the INDCs to assess the role of agriculture and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and the agriculture sectors (crops, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, as well as forestry) in meeting national mitigation contributions and adaptation objectives. The results show that in all regions, these sectors will play a pivotal role in accomplishing the intended contributions and objectives for addressing the causes of and increasing resilience to climate change by 2030 and beyond. The report outlines mitigation contributions with a particular focus on agriculture and LULUCF, vulnerabilities under climate change and priority areas and/or activities for adaptation in the agriculture sectors. The maps below, derived from the report, show the countries which include agriculture and LULUCF in their mitigation and adaptation contributions.

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The FAO has found that developing countries, especially the least-developed countries (LDCs), put a strong emphasis on the agriculture sectors. Many of these countries highlight the role of agriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture in economic development, particularly for employment, exports and rural development. Many countries also point to the vulnerabilities of these sectors to climate change and to the urgency to deal with this challenge for achieving the sustainable development agenda. Some 148 countries include agriculture (crops, livestock) in their mitigation contributions. In terms of adaptation, among the 131 countries that include priority areas for these type of actions, 97% refer to crops and livestock, 88% refer to forests and 64% refer to fisheries and aquaculture.

The EU and its Member States are the largest donors of climate finance to developing countries. In 2014, the EU and it Member States provided €14.5 billion from public sources and development finance institutions. In 2015, the EU and its Members States provided €17.6 billion in climate funding. Particular efforts in that sense are made by the EU in the domain of food and nutrition security and sustainable agriculture.

EU climate finance supports both mitigation and adaptation initiatives, often in a complementary way. Main types of funding in this domain are: an initiative to promote climate smart agriculture; projects to increase resilience in arid and semi-arid zones; climate adaptation along the value-chain – through the AgriFI initiative; and projects on agricultural information and early warning systems. For more details on EU activities on climate-relevant action on food and nutrition security and sustainable agriculture, consult the new note from DEVCO Unit C1  Agriculture and climate change. Embedding climate change in EU development cooperation for food and nutrition security and sustainable agriculture, published this week. 

Sources 

State of Food and Agriculture (SOFA 2016) on climate change, agriculture and food security, FAO, October 2017

How countries plan to address agricultural adaptation and mitigation, CCAFS, December 2015

Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture, ‘Nature’, March 2016

Implications of the Paris Agreement on climate change for African agriculture, NEPAD/CAADP, May 2016

White paper: Addressing the challenges of climate change and food insecurity, AAA, September 2016

COP22 host Morocco launches action plan to fight devastating climate change, ‘The Guardian’, November 2016

UN climate change conference in Marrakech - questions and answers, EC, November 2016

The agricultural sectors and the INDCs, FAO, November 2016