Global prospects for fossilfuels with special reference to resource rent effects and CCS-A normative backcasting perspective

Developments regarding the global supply of fossil fuels will have a major impact on post-2020 renewable energy deployment and deployment policies in the EU. To date, fossil fuels alone account for almost three quarters of the EU energy mix. Hence, achieving the at least 27% share of renewables in the EU’s final energy consumption warrants – besides energy efficiency enhancement – substitution of fossil fuels by (primarily) renewables to a quite significant extent. The as such highly uncertain future global fossil energy market trends will have a huge impact on the future competitiveness of fossil fuels in the EU. This report assesses the global prospects for fossil fuels. Point of departure for the assessment are the IEA’s central scenario projections, set out in its World Eenergy Outlook 2014 (WEO2014) publication.

This assessment is made from a normative back-casting perspective. It is based on two basic premises. First, to date the world is in an advanced stage of completing a trend towards catastrophic climate change phenomena degrading habitats for flora and fauna, including humanity. Second, the policy area of non-GHG environmental impacts - notably air pollution – is on the verge of moving to the centre stage of leading issues driving energy policy making world-wide.