​Investing in health R&D: Africa's next economic growth frontier

Download the report in English

Download the report in French

In response to Africa CDC’s New Public Health Order and the African Union (AU)’s Agenda 2063, there is growing recognition that health research and development (R&D) is not only a public good, but also a driver of economic growth and resilience. Building on this, a continent-wide study has been undertaken in partnership with Team Europe under the African Union–European Union (AU–EU) Health Partnership and with technical support from Global Health Ecosystems. The study aims to generate Africa-specific return on investment (ROI) evidence to strengthen the investment case and inform future financing strategies, policy decisions, and engagement with domestic and private capital. The analysis models impact across five key channels: gross domestic product (GDP) growth, employment creation and brain gain, private investment crowd-in, trade and competitiveness gains and long-run productivity and innovation spillovers.  

Africa’s economies need urgent expansion and diversification. They cannot remain narrowly focused on raw materials and labour. The transition toward a knowledge-based economy is essential. This includes building domestic capabilities in research, innovation, and local manufacturing. Strengthening these capacities will be critical to meeting the continent’s growing demand for jobs, services, and products. This study demonstrates how increased investments in health R&D in Africa, will serve each of these key priorities and promise to be an engine of both economic growth and improved public health across the continent. In addition to presenting new macroeconomic evidence, the study also showcases meaningful insights from the social and impact investor community in Africa.    

Key findings:  

1. Investing in Africa’s own health R&D is one of the highest-return economic decisions available to governments today. Reaching the African Union’s 1% R&D target, health R&D investments alone would generate $668 billion in additional GDP over 20 years - equivalent to a 137× return on investment - while breaking even within four years. This estimate excludes the value of lives saved, diseases prevented, and the insurance value of being able to respond faster to the next pandemic. The full return when taking the health gains into account is considerably higher. 
2. R&D investment pays back fast. The model shows that investment breaks even within four years (2029), meaning returns begin within a single political cycle. By 2030, Africa’s GDP growth rate is approximately 0.4 percentage points higher than baseline, rising to nearly 1 percentage point by 2035. 
3. Over 20 years, if Africa invests 1% GERD and 15% of that on health, the cumulative GDP gain will hit $668B, which is equivalent to creating a new industrial sector across the continent and adding several years of telecom-sector scale growth to the economy.  
4. 4.56 million jobs by 2044. Full implementation of the 1% GERD target and 15% of that on health would support 4.56 million jobs across African economies by 2044. These are not temporary jobs or short-term stimulus positions. They are sustained, skilled employment in one of the most productive sectors of any modern economy. 
5. Not investing is an expensive choice. If African health R&D spending falls 25% below the current baseline, the continent foregoes over $1.1 trillion in GDP over 20 years. The cost of standing still is not zero. The absence of sufficient investment carries major costs: higher morbidity and mortality, strained health systems, brain drain of skilled professionals, worsening trade imbalances, and missed opportunities for technological leadership. 

The economic case is clear. Now is the moment to turn ambition into investment - moving from political commitment to funded, coordinated action across a shared system. This requires prioritising three main actions: 

1. Build the foundations of a functioning market 

Led by governments 

• Enshrine the 1% GERD target, with 15% for health R&D  
• Actively shape markets through procurement, incentives, and guarantees  
• Strengthen regulatory frameworks and align incentives for innovation  
• Invest in core data systems to enable transparency, targeting, and accountability  

2. Coordinate a continental investment system 

Led by Africa CDC 

• Develop a continental investment blueprint with a pipeline of investable opportunities  
• Aggregate demand and coordinate opportunities across countries  
• Convene partners to align capital, priorities, and execution  

3. Deploy capital that matches the reality of R&D 

Co-led by Africa CDC, development finance institutions (DFIs), investors, and ecosystem actors 

• Structure blended finance with genuine risk-sharing  
• Align with long-term timelines and credible exit pathways  
• Invest in shared public goods: data, trial platforms, and visibility systems  

Africa is not starting from zero. This report shows what happens when the system is built: a $668 billion opportunity, millions of skilled jobs, and a health innovation ecosystem that serves African populations on African terms.