Setting up Counterfactual Impact Evaluations (CIEs) for EU Development Cooperation - A practical guide for evaluation managers

Counterfactual impact evaluations and in particular experimental randomized control trials have become a gold standard for evidence-based policy making, as they provide credible evidence on programme effectiveness, allowing for informed decision-making based on robust data. Still, despite the growing importance of counterfactual impact evaluations for EU development cooperation, there is a lack of practical guidance on when to apply and how to design and implement them. Drawing from the lessons learned of the large-scale evaluation of 84 EUTF supported projects in the Horn of Africa and Sahel Lake Chad regions, this document fills this gap, providing practical guidance for the EU on setting up and successfully managing counterfactual impact evaluations.