Should the Zambian Government Invest in Railways? Gaël Raballand and Alan Whitworth

Zambia’s railways have fallen on hard times.Having transported virtually all Zambia’s international trade up to the 1970s, today less than 30% is transported by rail.TAZARA has never been profitable and appears on the verge of bankruptcy, while RSZ is transporting a fraction of former volumes.The ‘average locomotive speed reduced from 60 km/h to 15 km/h’ (Republic of Zambia 2011:57).With the recovery in copper production in recent years, and the congestion and damage to the roads caused by exporting copper by truck, there have been widespread calls for investment in Zambia’s railways in order to reverse the switch from rail to road.The Government has announced ambitious plans to ‘maintain, rehabilitate and upgrade rail transport infrastructure’ (Republic of Zambia 2011:58).

There appears to be a broad public consensus, reflected in the Sixth National Development Plan, that both railway networks should be restored to their condition in the 1970s – and then extended (with new routes).It is implicitly assumed that, with the revival of copper exports, investment must be viable.This paper challenges this consensus and attempts to dispel some myths about Zambian railways. It shows how recent developments - particularly the development of a competitive trucking industry between Zambia and South Africa – have fundamentally altered the economics of ‘road versus rail’ and undermined the competitiveness of the railways, calling into question the need for two comprehensive rail systems.