The Vexing Strategic Tug of War Over Naypyidaw

BY: Pavin Chachavalpongpun

Abstract: This article argues that ASEAN’s policy toward Myanmar has

been predominantly responsive, dictated by China’s activism in the region. It

posits three arguments: First, that the release of political prisoners, including

Aung San Suu Kyi, may have been a tactical move to convince ASEAN to

award it the 2014 chairmanship and thereby consolidate the legitimacy of

the current regime; second, that Thein Sein’s suspension of the Myitsone

Dam was a strategic move intended to please both domestic and ASEAN

constituencies; and third, that Myanmar’s chairmanship of ASEAN in 2014

will help justify the organisation’s past approach to Burma as well as accelerate

the process of community-building. The paper argues that in spite of the

growing interconnectedness between ASEAN and China, ASEAN is locked

in a strategic tug-of-war with China over Myanmar. Myanmar has, on multiple

occasions, played upon ASEAN’s suspicion of China by playing the

“China card,” as I term it, forcing ASEAN to continually legitimise it

through public statements.