Global Gateway investments in fragile settings: How to do it?

In this brief, Sara Gianesello and Sophie Desmidt analyse how the EU can better integrate principles of conflict and climate sensitivity into its Global Gateway investments in fragile and conflict-affected contexts to ensure they contribute to long-term peace and resilience.

Summary

The EU is scaling up investments in renewable energy and the green transition to secure stable supply chains for critical raw materials. These are often concentrated in fragile regions.

Infrastructure investments in fragile and conflict-affected contexts (FCACs) can either foster peace and resilience or – if poorly designed – exacerbate tensions. Integrating climate and conflict sensitivity is vital to promote inclusive resilience, supporting sustainable development and contributing to peace and stability.

This briefing note examines the EU’s Global Gateway strategy and its approach to infrastructure investment, with a specific focus on the challenges and opportunities presented by FCACs, in relation to energy and the green transition. We analyse how the EU can better integrate principles of conflict and climate sensitivity into its investments to ensure they contribute to long-term peace and resilience.

Our main findings reveal that, while the Global Gateway’s ‘green and clean’ principle supports climate resilience, conflict sensitivity remains weakly embedded. ‘Security’ is another principle of the strategy, but there is little evidence that current EU frameworks for conflict analysis and conflict-sensitive programming are systematically applied to Global Gateway or green energy projects. 

As the next MFF is negotiated, and the Global Gateway is scaled up, the EU should embed integrated analysis, covering gender-, conflict- and climate-risk assessments, as a prerequisite for all programming and investments. In addition, the EU should ensure alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Climate Agreement and a ‘do no harm’ approach. Investments should prioritise peace- and nature-positive projects that enhance resilience and inclusivity through participatory planning, governance reforms and local ownership. Stronger coordination across Team Europe, along with guarantees and financing that are subject to conflict- and climate-sensitive indicators, would improve accountability, reduce risks and maximise peacebuilding and sustainability outcomes.