Research into the possible structural impacts of Dutch agrifood exports to Africa

Do subsidised, highly efficient Dutch farmers push African farmers out of their markets? ECDPM and Wageningen University researched this question for the Dutch Foreign Ministry and the Dutch Parliament (Tweede Kamer). We analysed the trade data, selected two in-depth cases with the highest probability of structural negative impacts – and, based on econometric analysis and interviews, found that there were no such harmful impacts in these cases. This also indicates that impacts in other cases would likely be very limited.

1. ‘Vulnerable’ African countries imported around $ 1 billion worth of agricultural products from the Netherlands in 2023, or around 2% of their total, with Dutch exports declining over time; 

2. Onion exports to Senegal and potato exports to Côte d’Ivoire were selected for in-depth research given their likelihood of causing structural impacts as they represent substantial Dutch trade volumes and import market share ($ 33.3 million volume and 71% market share for onions to Senegal; $ 10.0 million and 84% for potatoes to Côte d’Ivoire); 

3. In-depth research found no statistical evidence or other indications that Dutch onion exports cause structural negative effects on prices for local onion farmers in Senegal. In Côte d’Ivoire, the sector’s small size limited the ability to detect statistically significant results, but no indications of structural negative effects were found. In both cases, current trade was seen as complementary rather than competition; 

4. The absence of structural impacts in both case studies is due to a Senegalese government limiting imports to protect domestic producers, and Ivorian farmers not producing potatoes but other crops; In both cases, Dutch companies are supplying high-quality seeds, considered essential to enhance domestic onion and potato production; and 

5. Trade impacts were complex, context specific, and shaped by local actors. While it is impossible to rule out structural impacts in every instance of Dutch exports to ‘vulnerable’ countries, it is very likely that impacts of imports from the Netherlands not examined in detail would be at most very limited, as they constitute only a limited share or volume of an African country’s total import of that product