U-turns – The Hope for Democratic Resilience

Contemporary autocratisation in democracies is often a gradual process, occurring from within or under a legal façade. The main drivers of this process are democratically elected leaders who intentionally dismantle democratic norms and institutions. Gradually, political power is concentrated into one party or one person. Sounds all too familiar. Democracies rarely survive once autocratisation takes holder, with roughly 80% break down. However, a breakdown does not rule out the possibility of a return to democracy. 

In this policy brief, V-Dem explores the emerging of U-turns or bounce back resilience in response to democratic backsliding and breakdowns. 

Democracies can demonstrate resilience to autocratisation in several ways. They can be resilient to the onset of autocratisation, meaning that they prevent autocratisation taking root altogether. Contemporary democracies show a strong resilience in this regard, with 54% remaining democratic without experiencing any backsliding since 1994. However, if autocratisation does occur, democracies can still exhibit breakdown resilience, meaning they manage to avoid a full regime change. Such cases are rare though – only 11% from 1900 to 2023 – and most happened during the last 30 years. The third form of resilience, which V-Dem studied, is the bounce back resilience. This refers to a democracy’s ability to recover after a brief period of autocracy and revert to re-democratisation. These U-turns most often result in democracies returning to a similar or comparable level of democratic quality. U-turns are the most common form of democratic resilience, accounting for 46% of all autocratisation processes originating in democracies between 1990 and 2023. In most cases, autocratisation was halted and reversed swiftly, usually within 5 years after its onset. 

In the rare cases of breakdown resilience, aspiring autocrats typically make critical errors, such as economic mismanagement, which erodes their legitimacy and ultimately leads to regime changes. However, the vast majority of U-turn are driven by a combination of institutional safeguards (independent judiciaries, electoral (information) integrity), societal collective action (including political parties, unified opposition, civil society, media, mass public and diplomatic support for democracy) and timing (early warning and response). These key forces work together to resist the stabilisation of autocracy, leading to re-democratisation.  

However, a cautionary note: no democracy has managed to reverse a breakdown and bounce back to its previous levels if the autocratisation has lasted more than a decade. After 10 years, autocratisation tends to consolidate autocratic rule, making reversal nearly impossible.  It is therefore crucial for international democracy support and protection actors to raise awareness among domestic pro-democracy groups about the gradual nature of contemporary autocratisation and the urgency of acting quickly.