End of the ‘Research in the Service of Democracy and Social Cohesion’ project of the Gorée Institute

The Gorée Institute think tank has developed an early‑warning system as part of the RESDEC project (Research in the Service of Democracy and Social Cohesion). Funded by the Team Europe Democracy Initiative, this early warning system tracks social and political developments in three West African countries—Senegal, Guinea, and Côte d’Ivoire—as of the end of 2025.

In 2025, Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire experienced rising political tensions ahead of their elections. In Senegal, the formation of the new government under Bassirou Diomaye Faye led to some public frustration. To monitor these developments, GORIN researchers created indicators linked to social cohesion, democratic governance and peace. They then tracked how these indicators evolved across four regions in each country:

• Guinea: Conakry, Fouta Djallon, Kankan and N’Zérékoré
• Côte d’Ivoire: Abidjan, Centre‑East (Nzi, Moronou, Iffou), North‑East (Boukani, Tchologo, Bagoué) and West (Duékoué, Guiglo,Man, Bangolo)
• Senegal: Kédougou, Casamance, Dakar and the Centre‑West (Thiès and Diourbel)

The findings published between end of 2025 and early 2026 highlight several shared vulnerabilities. These include cross‑border security risks, territorial inequalities. They also point to ongoing land disputes, especially in the border between the Gambia and Senegal. In addition, there are concerns about a lack of transparency in certain legal case such the deadly stampede at the stadium Nzérékoré in Guinea. The findings also note the presence of self‑defence groups in certain rural areas of Côte d’Ivoire and high exposure to gender‑based violence such as female genital mutilation. However, the various policy briefs also identified positive initiatives, such as efforts to curb armed gold mining in Guinea and major drug seizures in Senegal. 

Based on the data collected, GORIN’s policy briefs, and exchanges with national actors, the Gorée Institute has developed a set of recommendations and future perspectives for national leaders and European partners. These are presented in its cross-country analysis across the three countries. 

One key recommendation is the early warning system, currently designed as a pilot initiative. This system will need to be strengthened over time and developed in collaboration with regional actor such as ECOWAS to be fully effective. 

If properly supported, it could play an important role in informing public policies and supporting civil society efforts aimed at strengthening social cohesion. As Latyr Tine, a peace and security expert at the Gorée Institute, pointed out: “Even small incidents between communities can escalate into significant conflict in the region.” 

GORIN’s cross analysis is available in French here: https://goreeinstitut.org/publication/island-positions-special-resdecs-policy-briefs-series-analyse-croisee-des-dynamiques-socio-politiques-au-senegal-en-guinee-et-en-cote-divoire/