Hydro-hegemony, security order and Institution Construction : On International Rivers political complex
Hydro-hegemony, security order and Institution Construction : On International Rivers political complex
Abstract
Lasting international river conflict, the plight of international river non-cooperation, new emerging problems such as climate change, water scarcity, environmental issues, etc.，have increased the significance of political research on international rivers。
This book was based on an analysis of hydro-political complex, analyzing the political power relations within the complex, seeking the formation and motivation of international river systems, to achieve realistic paths of harmonious order in international basins. Simultaneously, through research on theory and practice of international river hydro-political complex, the book analyzed the situation and plight of China international river basins，and gave some feasible suggestions on the building of international river security mechanisms surrounding China。
The main contents are:
1. View the international river basin as a regional study subject, describe the concept and characteristics of international river hydro-political complex. International river basin is a special area. It could and must be used as a study area. International river basin is an important geographical and legal concept. Drainage area of the world's 263 international rivers covers 45.3 percent of earth's land surface, affected about 40 percent of the world's population. It is significant to national and regional security. The undetermined sovereignty or property of water resources in international rivers is prone to tragedy of the commons, causing various security problems，bringing negative impact to national and regional security. Although scholars study international river security issues from different disciplines（geography, hydrology, ecology, sociology, law, etc.）, set up scientific rationality standards theoretical to international security order and the international rivers cooperation mechanism, and describe a static and beautiful picture, they have failed to solve the problem of motivation (why basin countries cooperate).Thus they have failed to effectively prevent conflict. Due to shared waters, basin countries form a group of security relationships centric of water resources. Viewing international rivers as a regional study perspective, we could analyze power structures within the region, construction of the international river mechanisms among dynamic interaction, in order to seek the motivation of institution construction.
2. powers of IRHC were studied. its asymmetric power structure was analyzed. The formation conditions of hydro-hegemony was analyzed. According to above theory, several major IRHCs’s power structures were evaluated. Basin States impose effects on the international political order and the construction of IRHC through power resources including geographic location, military capability, economic strength, political influence, theoretical concepts, etc. Aymmetric power situations were formed in almost all IRHC's. Due to geographical advantages, strong national military and economic strength, some countries can gain a dominant position in an IRHC. They may even become hegemonic, manipulating the establishment of mechanisms in IRHC。Hydro- hegemony reflects specific power relations between basin countries. Such a country is not only the most powerful country in the watershed，but can get water interest beyond its water rights.
The current evaluation criteria of hydro-hegemony emphasizes strength advantage. It is inclined to judge advantage nations as hydro-hegemony. Comparatively stronger countries like China or Turkey were seen as hydro-hegemony according to this standard. This judgment is not conducive to scientific and objective power analysis of IRHC. Strength advantage is an important factor for the formation of hegemony, but only strength advantage does not necessarily produce hegemony. Basin countries must have three elements to become hydro-hegemony:（1）Objective elements, namely basin country has the ability to dominate other countries（geographic, political, economic or/and military superiority）；（2）Subjective elements, namely basin country has motives of dominating other countries；（3）Result elements, basin countries get the benefits exceeding its water rights, harming the interests of other basin countries，resulting in unfair and unreasonable water distribution and utilization。Under the new standards, according to water rights data, Egypt (Nile basin) and Israel (Jordan basin) constituted water hegemonies. Turkey (Tigris-Euphrates basin) and China (Mekong River) were not Hydro-hegemonies.
3.Current status of security and political order of IRHC was assessed. Three security modes and its future trend was discussed. Currently, conflicts are widespread in IRHC and water conflicts are more acute in dry areas. The security situation of IRHC corresponds to conflict mode, security mode and community mode. Conflict mode exists mainly in arid and semi-arid areas. The complexity of the international rivers themselves, differences of interest between basin countries, asymmetric political power structures in the IRHC，all hinder cooperation.
4. During the analysis of the interaction between international river basin countries, it was found that the exercise of hard power was not conducive to resolving conflict. Then, some basin countries began to improve their soft power. In general practice, basin countries use strategy related to the balance of power such as allying with each other, seeking foreign aid, etc, to promote equitable utilization of water. Conflict is not alleviated by interaction emphasizing hard power. On the other hand, some basin countries' practice of enhancing soft power had been successful. Currently, Turkey, Egypt and South Africa are carrying out this practice.
5. It is pointed out that international river theory of clear boundaries of power, reciprocity between rights and obligations among basin countries is the basis for the formation of international river community. Interaction among basin countries makes the structure change. Social structure (friendly - hostile mode) can move from "conflict form" up to "security community." Interaction of basin countries should focus on water rights and related issues. The pursuit of fair water rights is the driving force of their cooperation。Only the theory of international river utilization reflecting the common interests of mankind, and clear boundaries of power, could meet the needs of cooperation among basin countries. Then harmonious international river hydro-political community complex can be built.
6. China IRHCs are all in security mode and the possibility of conflicts in the future is increasing。China has the fourth most international rivers in the world. China International river basins involve nineteen countries, affecting nearly 3 billion people. Its drainage area accounts for 30% of the land area. On the other hand, China is suffering serious water scarcity. Water in international rivers is an important freshwater resource. These rivers are related to domestic economic construction, regional economic stability and China's relations with neighboring countries. Generally speaking, most China international rivers are facing a certain degree of security problems. China has five of the 17 most dangerous international rivers in the world. It isYaluzangbu-Brahmaputra River, Irtysh- Ob River, Lancang-Mekong River, Nujiang - Salween River and Tumen River. Security of international rivers has became a hot issue to be solved in China.
7. China is usually considered the advantage country in IRHC. Such advantage has always been called "hydro-hegemony" by some media. The context of hydro-hegemony brings trouble to China's participation in constructing international mechanisms. It also hampered the use of international rivers. Therefore, enhancing soft power is the best way to deal with the perception of hydro-hegemony and to improve system building. China is an important actor in perimeter security order. Chinese policy and behavior on international rivers is the focus of attention among basin countries as well as outside. Unfavorable public opinion has caused China to lose its dominance in the system construction and limited China's developing process of its international rivers. China should apply the principle of reciprocity of rights and obligations among basin countries which should be embodied in the theory of international river law: enhance the soft power in order to defuse the crisis，win the right to speak，lead mechanism construction of international rivers.
This book took research methods combining power analysis and legal interpretation. Legal analysis describes harmonious hydro-political community. Power analysis provides the approach for constructing the community. Legal analysis provides a scientific evaluation system for equitable and reasonable utilization of international rivers. It regulates use of power among basin countries under the rule of law，and provides real remedy for damaged international relations. Power analysis places basin countries among international interactive relations. Thus the legal system is no longer a static framework.Through a comprehensive study, we can motivate the basin states to participate in the mechanism construction. Blueprints to build hydro-political community would be fulfilled. A better harmonious system of international river utilization would be achieved.
Table of Contents
1 Questions....................................................................................................................
1.1 International river conflicts: lingering shadows.................................................
1.2 International river cooperations: how to achieve watershed and regional security
1.3 International river hydro-Politics: how to research...........................................
1.4 The purpose of this book;structure and technology roadmap..........................
2 International river Hydro-political complex......................................................
2.1 The concept...........................................................................................................
2.1.1 Regional security complex...........................................................................................................................
2.1.2 International river Hydro-political complex (IRHC).................................................................
2.1.3 Characteristics of IRHC..................................................................................................................................
2.2 Power structure of IRHC.......................................................................................
2.2.1 Hard power of river basin countries....................................................................................................
2.2.2 Soft power of river basin countries.......................................................................................................
2.2.3 The relationship between hard and soft power within IRHC...............................................
2.3 Asymmetric power structure of IRHC..................................................................
2.3.1 Advantage of countris in IRHC..................................................................................................................
2.3.2 Hydro-hegemony and its criteria in IRHC.........................................................................................
2.3.3 Analysis of the power structure with several main IRHC's..................................................
3 Status quo of IRHC....................................................................................................
3.1 Widespread conflict within IRHC.........................................................................
3.1.1 Almost IRHCs are suffering different kinds of conflict..............................................................
3.1.2 Varying degrees of conflict lead to different kinds of security modes.............................
3.1.3 Conflict is most likely to occur in dry areas.....................................................................................
3.2 Uncertainties increase the probability of conflict...............................................
3.2.1 Properties of International Rivers have their own conflict factors.................................
3.2.2 Climate change increases conflict possibilities...............................................................................
3.2.3 Water pressure caused by growing population intensifies the conflict.........................
3.3 Difficulties of forming Stable IRHC Cooperation.................................................
3.3.1 Asymmetric powers cause varying motivations..........................................................................
3.3.2 Asymmetric relations between hydro-hegemony and basin countries........................
3.3.3 Unstable cooperation under the guidance of hydro-hegemony..........................................
4 Interaction between countries in an IRHC..........................................................
4.1 Seeking balance of power in order to facilitate cooperation..............................
4.1.1 Allying of countries with common interests...................................................................................
4.1.2 finding foreign aid to improve their status........................................................................................
4.1.3 Using related matters to play interconnected game..............................................................
4.2 Soft power as a leading role in an IRHC................................................................
4.2.1"Three-stage plan" proposed by Turkey.............................................................................................
4.2.2 Egypt promotes Nile Initiative..................................................................................................................
4.2.3 "Gentle giant" image shaped by South Africa....................................................................................
4.3 Findings.................................................................................................................
4.3.1 The exercise of hard power does not form a cooperative security...................................
4.3.2 Soft power can promote equitable and reasonable utilization of international rivers
4.3.3 Practice of enhancing the soft power achieved positive results.........................................
4.3.4 Enhancing soft power must be carried out under the principle of equitable and reasonable utilization
5 Construction of the international river Hydro-political community............
5.1 System building dilemma of International river basins.....................................
5.1.1 No universal regulations exist for international rivers............................................................
5.1.2 Existing rules function ineffectively.......................................................................................................
5.1.3 No regulations exist among some IRHCs............................................................................................
5.2 The possibility of constructing Hydro-political community...............................
5.2.1 From conflict to cooperation.....................................................................................................................
5.2.2 Common security threats affecting cooperation...........................................................................
5.2.3 Fundamental interests promote deeper cooperation................................................................
5.3 Approach of constructing hydro-political community.......................................
5.3.1 Emphasizing the role of theoretical guide..........................................................................................
5.3.2 Forming a scientific and objective framework...............................................................................
5.3.3 Promoting the formation of a legitimate and effective system.............................................
5.3.4 Publicizing data, building cooperation platform............................................................................
6 Implications and recommendations....................................................................
6.1 All China IRHCs are in security mode...................................................................
6.1.1 Conflicts focus on hydropower development and water allocation................................
6.1.2 Cooperation mainly focused on information sharing.................................................................
6.1.3 Some China IRHCs heavily affected by external forces..............................................................
6.2 China's position.....................................................................................................
6.2.1"Nominal" hydro-hegemony........................................................................................................................
6.2.2 China lost language power in some IRHCs.........................................................................................
6.3.3 China failed to dominate the process of system building.........................................................
6.3 Increasing soft power to promote hydro-political community..........................
6.3.1 Emphasizing reciprocity between rights and obligations.......................................................
6.3.2 Influencing international public opinion to win the right to speak...................................
6.3.3 Participating in international river legislation...............................................................................
References...................................................................................................................
Chinese (including translate version)...............................................................................................................
English...................................................................................................................................................................................